How The West Will Be Won

Finally.  I wasn't sure if I could make it through or not.  For the first time since June, NBA basketball returns to a court near you!  We saw one of the most chaotic summers in recent memory with an unequivocal low point in "The Decision" and some patriotic elation when the US "B" team won the World Championships in Turkey behind the jaw-dropping play of Kevin Durant.

So let's take a look at how the West is going to play out.  The Lakers putted through the end of the 2010 season to finish with 57 wins, but then kicked it into another gear for the playoffs.  They concluded the year with their second straight championship.  Gross.  Will Kevin Durant shoulder OKC like he did the US team and challenge the Lakers?  Can Portland stay healthy enough for 82 games?  Are the Spurs on their last legs?  A lot of questions and uncertainties out West (except, of course Minnesota, who just sucks).

Without further ado, here is how I expect the West to play out.

1. Los Angeles Lakers
The throne is theirs to lose.  Sure, the average age of this team is climbing and their are questions about just how many more miles Kobe's legs can take.  But is there a better winner in the league right now that Kobe?  The smart addition of Steve Blake will help stop the bleeding of Derek Fisher's dying body.  Pau Gasol is arguably the best power forward in the league.  The team remains essentially the same from last year.  The only question mark is Bynum.  Can he ever be healthy enough to help this team?  If he can give them 60+ games, there is no reason that the Lakers should not make it to the NBA Finals.  And it kills me to say that.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Alright, now here is where things get more difficult.  The #2 spot in the West is going to be majorly up for grabs and I think that OKC, Portland, Utah or Dallas could all snag it.  But, based on everything up to this point, I believe that OKC is in the best position to secure #2.  The level that KD played at in the World Championships was the reason the US won.  But Westbrook definitely showed marked improvement from the end of the 2010 season.  The Achilles heel for the Thunder will be their big men.  Green is undersized and is abused by opposing power forwards.  I like the energy and intensity that Ibaka gives them, but he is so raw offensively that he does little on that end.  And Aldrich remains a question mark.  But as of right now, the elite play of KD and Westbrook give OKC the nod over the rest.


3. Portland Trail Blazers
If OKC's summer was the model of security and smooth operations, then one needs to look at the other side of the spectrum to locate the Blazers.  The KP debacle made Portland management look worse than it already did in the eyes of the league.  The front-loaded deal to Wesley Matthews, an undrafted rookie, was questionable at that time.  The distinct lack of chemistry, still, between Roy and Miller in the preseason.  Pryzbilla and Oden, enough said.  But the Blazers have the pieces to be successful this year.  If, and that's a big if, the Blazers can stay healthy, they have enough talent to finish second in the West.  But if another big man goes down, none of that will really matter.

4. Dallas Mavericks
What can I even say?  Dallas will get 50+ wins again this year, but it won't matter.  Like Utah, they play well during the season, but cannot put it together in the playoffs.  It has been the same story every year for Dallas (the exception being 2006).  This roster would be incredible if it were 2007, but unfortunately age has caught up with this team.  And the addition of Tyson Chandler and a full season for Butler and Haywood won't convince me that the Mavericks will be golfing come June.


5. Utah Jazz
The only reason that I have the Jazz this high is because they are a good regular season team.  Jerry Sloan has his team ready to play night in and out.  Derron Williams is a top tier point guard and even though they lost Boozer to Chicago, they acquired Al Jefferson who is one of the best low post scorers in the league.  Now, the problem is that this roster is just not designed to do damage in the playoffs.  Their bench is weak and Jefferson actually plays less defense than Boozer.  I see another first round exit in the Jazz's future.

6. San Antonio Spurs
Poor Tim Duncan.  It is becoming harder to watch him each year because he just doesn't look the same as he once did.  The number of games and minutes caught up with him in a hurry which is bad news for the Spurs.  Sure, they still have Ginobli and Parker, plus they finally cashed in on their rights to Tiago Splitter.  But this team needs Duncan to operate at a high level on both ends of the floor to be successful.  And I'm just not sure he's going to be able to keep doing that.

7. Houston Rockets
Call me crazy, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Houston finish higher than this.  I like their starting five, even if they vowed to only play Yao 24 minutes a game.  If he can stay healthy and be effective for all 24 minutes he is on the court, then that will free up space for the shooters in Brooks, Martin, Battier and Budinger.  Courtney Lee was a solid pickup for them, a quintessential Daryl Morey move.  And now with Yao back, Scola can return to pull up 15 footers and crashing the offensive glass.  The Rockets are my sleeper in the West.

8. Denver Nuggets
Alright, this is circumstantial based on how long they hang on to Carmelo.  Notice how I didn't say if they trade him?  The writing is on the wall in Denver and it says that Anthony's locker will be empty come February.  If the Nuggets come out strong at the beginning of the year while he is still around, they may be able to create a cushion to hold off the sharks below them who smell blood.  But if Anthony gets traded sooner rather than later, it could be a long year for Denver.

9. Memphis Grizzlies
As I mentioned above, if Anthony gets traded soon, I expect Memphis to take that last playoff spot.  This team won 42 games last year and now has Zach Randolph in a contract year (if that doesn't scream inflated stats, I don't know what does).  Their starting five is impressive and the addition of Tony Allen boosts their bench play.  The problem is the rest of their bench is garbage.  If one of the starters is lost to injury then that could derail Memphis's entire season.  But if they all can stay healthy then they'll find themselves in unfamiliar territory: the postseason.


10. Phoenix Suns
Losing Contract Year Amar'e hurt.  Replacing him with Turkoglu and Hakim Warrick didn't help.  Adding Josh Childress created a big log jam at the small forward position.  And Channing Frye is still their backup center.  So now you can see why the sun is stuck behind some clouds in Phoenix.  Their biggest hope remains Steve Nash's level of play.  But I suspect this team will just give up too many easy baskets to hope for a playoff spot.

11. New Orleans Hornets
I feel badly for Chris Paul.  One has to think that he is not going to spend the rest of his career in the Big Easy, especially if Anthony gets dealt to New York.  This team will be able to put up a barrage of points for sure.  Paul at the helm makes any players look good (see "All-Star" David West).  Thorton and Bayless will benefit from playing with Paul as both players can score in bunches.  Their defense is pathetic at best though.  Ariza will help patch up this wound a little bit, but the Hornets will not have the talent nor the discipline on defense to keep up with the rest of the West.


12. Los Angeles Clippers
13. Golden State Warriors
14. Sacramento Kings
15. Minnesota Timberwolves
Damnit, I don't even feel like talking about these teams.  None will make the post-season, let alone sniff at it.  Griffin is my pick to win ROY.  Steph Curry will always be exciting to watch, but the Warriors need to address the situation of Curry and Ellis' inability to play together.  Any wagers on which player Cousins strangles first?  My money goes on Evans.  And Minnesota.  "We won't win a championship this year, but we're going to improve!"  That's exactly what your ticket holders want to hear, David Kahn.

So there you have it.  That's what I expect to happen in the West.  But it could be a chaotic year with the Anthony mess, the number of teams with injury question marks, and plenty of new faces in different cities.  What do you think?  Let me know in the comment section.  Also, if you haven't yet subscribed to my blog, it's really simple that even a...well I'll spare you the pathetic cultural allusion.  Just sign up.