Tuesday, 22 February 2011

Immediate Carmelo Analysis

Finally, it is over.  No more Carmelo drama and the "will he / won't he" talks.  None of it.  Now we just have to deal with the insufferable New York media touting how the Knicks are back, when in fact, they may not be any better off with this trade.

Adding Carmelo gives them a huge one-two punch of scoring with Amar'e.  And of course, having Chauncy Billups will add stability to the point guard position.  But after that?  The Knicks have basically mortgaged their future.  They managed to hang on to Landry Fields, which is good.  The only problem with that is that I would rather have Chandler or Danilo before I keep Fields.  Felton was the only one that was more expendable than Fields.  The other issue with this trade is that it leaves the bench of the Knicks paper-thin.  They are going to be playing their starters 40 minutes a night, which doesn't sound too bad to most, but it adds up come playoff time.

Going into the future, the trade is incredibly short-sighted on the part of the Knicks.  Assuming there is a lockout, Melo will already have signed his three year extension and eaten up a huge chunk of the cap (whether it stays hard or soft).  That, combined with Amar'e max deal last summer, leaves the Knicks on the outside looking in on a big-name free agent like CP3 or Deron Williams, who they have long coveted.  So let's say that they want to try and trade for one of those two?  What are they going to offer?  They have no long term assets left, players or draft picks.  The Hornets aren't going to take Azuibuke, Fields and Turiaf for Chris Paul no matter how hard the New York media tries to spin it so that they will.

Lastly, does this put the Knicks on the same level as Boston, Miami, Orlando and Chicago?  Not a chance.  What does one thing those other three do better than the majority of the league?  Play defense.  All four rank in the top ten in defensive efficiency (I'm writing this in the morning and not fact-checking so I hope that is right).  The Knicks still don't play defense and they still don't have enough fire-power from start to finish to keep up with these four teams.

Don't let the New York media fool you, folks.  The trade may look and sound good because it brings in the second best pure scorer in the league and makes the Knicks "relevant" again.  But they invested their future in Carmelo and Amar'e and left themselves little room to negotiate with other teams.  I'm beginning to wonder when teams will stop just chasing after star power so much and go the route of the Spurs.  Or even take the route of the Celtics and build a real team around their stars, something that will cripple Miami and New York in the playoffs this year.

Well, I guess if nothing else, the saga is over and Blazer fans have something to cheer about.  Coming up later today, analysis on the trade from Denver's perspective and also what this means for Portland and the playoffs.

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