So here we are, having covered both the owners and the players in the current CBA discussion. But ultimately the main question on all of their minds is: what is going to happen when the Herby Hancocks are signed.
The way I see it, the players are in some trouble. The draft age will stay the same, but as I stated already, the players only seek to negotiate that down because they know if they don't, the owners will attempt to push the age to twenty. Winners: Push
The salary cap is a tough issue because it is one of the more contested issues. I see one of two things happening in this area. Either the cap is going to be reduced significantly, with greater penalties for exceeding the cap. That, or the NBA will institute a hard salary cap, where teams are entirely unable to exceed the salary cap. This means shorter, smaller contracts for players. Winners: Owners
I want to take one more paragraph to explain the significance of this because it may not be entirely evident. These shorter contracts will help ensure a more competitive league because players will not be able to sign 5-6 year deals and then proceed to not give a damn. Shorter contracts make sure that the right players are being paid the right amount of money. And on a larger scale, it will help distribute the talent across the league more effectively. In the past ten years, only four different teams have won the NBA championship. The league has devolved into 6-8 team league where the smaller market clubs cannot compete with the likes of Boston, LA and Miami. Smaller contracts and a hard(er) cap will certainly allow teams, albeit in the future, to begin competing more frequently.
The final point of contention is the revenue sharing at the end of the year. Right now, players receive 57% of the cut, which is significantly different than two decades ago when the owners saw the majority of the money. I expect that the players will see a reduction in the amount of revenue sharing they receive, but they'll maintain their majority status. Winners: Players
But how long will all of this take to figure out? Too long, unfortunately. David Stern is a proficient businessman who knows how to get what he wants. Billy Hunter, the players' representative, is a loud-mouth who fires from the hip. I think it will be a knock down, grind-it-out type of negotiation, but ultimately cooler heads will prevail. The owners will really stick it to the players in the end, but at the expense of the 2011-2012 NBA season.
I'd be interested to see the effects of a hard cap...I don't actually know that it would be good for the league. I think a soft cap with a dollar-for-dollar luxury tax effectively deters huge spending, especially nowadays. It's true that Miami / LA / New York are starting to hoard superstars, but none of that is the effect of free agency, at least not directly. Every single one of the star players on those teams, save Amare who's not a real superstar anyway, was acquired through trade or the draft. I don't know that a hard cap would increase parity with that in mind.
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