David Stern "hopeful" for a deal

With around twenty-four hours left until a lockout, and the clock ticking ominously like the Tell-Tale Heart, David Stern claims he is hopeful that owners and players can strike a deal to prevent it.  Not likely, but at least he is optimistic, right?

The biggest issue with the NBA lockout is the problem is systemic.  Whereas the NFL simply has to figure out how divide a few billion based on television profits, the NBA's problems arise from the foundation of the league. In the NFL, they don't have the problems with contracts and salary cap that exist in the NBA.  The NFLPA simply needs to find a way to tell owners they can't have their 18 game schedule cake, and eat their stricter concussion testing too.  Once they have solved that problem, the two sides mutually agree on a way to split the money and the lockout ends.  On the surface, it seems like fans will have football to watch on Sundays come this fall.

Life isn't that simple in the NBA.  The blood on the wall has been there since the last CBA.  Writers will note that this is the first time the league has locked out since the 99-00 season.  They'll point out that this does not help combat the image crisis that basketball continues to face.  They'll act surprised when the end of October rolls around, and we still have no basketball to watch.

But they should, and probably do, know better.  Even though the official lockout will not start until tomorrow, the league has been in a figurative lockout for the better part of half a decade.  The current setup of the league is not profitable for owners and they want a change.  Unlike baseball in 2002, fans should not expect a last minute deal to prevent a lockout.  And unlike football currently, fans won't see the kind of progress that the NFL appears to make each meeting.

No, the problem in the NBA is bigger.  And it has been since the last CBA in 2005.  So when David Stern announces that the league and owners have officially locked out the players, we shouldn't be shocked.  We've been in a lockout this entire time.